报告题目：Revealing the mechanism of China's zero-COVIDpolicy

报告人：胡延庆教授(南方科技大学)

报告时间：2024年8月28日下午日16:30-17:10

报告地点：复杂系统研究所4层报告厅(商学楼409室)

报告人简介：胡延庆，南方科技大学副教授，博士生导师。2011年毕业于北京师范大学系统科学学院，获得系统理论方向理学博士学位。获得北京市优秀博士论交奖、广东省特支科技创新青年拔尖人才、广东省杰出青年基金等奖励与项目。2011-2013年纽约城市大学LevichInstitute博士后。近几年主要从事大数据、复杂网络、图神经网络等方面的研究。发表论文70余，包括Nature MedicineNature Physics, Nature Human Behavior, PNAS, Nature CommunicationsPRL,PRX等杂志。

报告摘要：China's zero-COVID policy successfully prevented nationwide SARSCoV-2 outbreaks until December 2022.However, the underlying mechanismsand limits of this policy in epidemic control remain unquantified. In this study, we conduct a systematic analysis of the real-world control operation againstan Omicron outbreak in Shenzhen, a metropolis in southern China with 17.8million residents.Leveraging comprehensive data of 1.187 positive cases and86,451 close contacts identified from February to April 2022, we develop amathematical model to elucidate the principles, containment limits, andgeneralizability of the zero-COVID policy. Notably, we derive the threshold for the reaction time required for the test-trace-quarantine operation to achievesuccessful control at various stages of epidemic management. Furthermore, we quantitatively demonstrate how test-trace-quarantine works synergisticallywith social distancing to enhance epidemic control, providing a dynamicmethod for evaluating the efficacy of containment measures. This studytransitions the zero-COVID policy from an empirical approach to atheoretically grounded strategy, thereby establishing a foundation understanding the limits of non-pharmaceutical interventions in containinginfectious diseases.

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