报告题目：Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in twoAmazonian cities

报告人：何岱海 (香港理工大学)

报告时间：2023年5月22号15:00-16:30

报告地点：复杂系统研究所报告厅(商学楼409室)

报告人简介：何岱海，副教授，博士生导师，就职于香港理工大学应用数学系，于1999年获西安交通大学工学博士学位，2006年获加拿大麦克马斯大学数学博士学位。曾在北京师范大学物理系、美国密西根大学生态学系、以色列特拉雄夫大学动物学系做博士后研究。主要研究兴趣是传染病建模和数据统计分析，在PNAS,Sci Adv,Ann Intern, Eur Respir J,J R Soc Interface等权威期刊发表论文140余篇，研究成果受到国内外媒体的广泛报道。其关于非洲安哥拉黄热病的建模获2018年国际疾病监测学会的科学贡献最佳论文第二名，并先后获得香港研究资助局项目、香港食品与卫生环境署健康与医疗项目、阿里巴巴合作研究基金等多项基金资助。

摘要：The nearby cities of Iquitos (Peru) and Manaus (Brazil) experienced the world's highest infection and mortality rates during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. Key studies suggested that >70% of the city populations were infected in this wave and thus close to herd immunity and protected. It remains an enigma as to why a deadly second wave followed in Manausworse than the first. To resolve this, we present a data-driven model of epidemic dynamics in Iquitos which we use to help explain and model events in Manaus. The partially observed Markov process model simultaneous fits a flexible “variable R0”, estimates long-term immunity waning and impulsive immune evasion, and thus provides a comprehensive framework for characterizing and modeling new variants of concern.

何岱海教授在做精彩报告