报告题目：A tuberculosis model with early and late latency, imperfect vaccination and relapse

报告人：刘志军教授（湖北民族大学）

报告时间：2023年12月31日上午9:00-9:40

报告地点：复杂系统研究所（商学楼五层）

报告人简介：刘志军，湖北民族大学二级教授，四川大学数学专业博士生导师，湖北省政府专项津贴专家，湖北省新世纪高层次人才工程人选。主要从事种群动力学和传染病动力学的研究工作，主持国家自然科学基金3项（面上项目2项、地区项目1项），以第一作者或通讯作者发表SCI检索论文80余篇，获得湖北省自然科学奖三等奖1项（排序第二）。

报告摘要：Screening those individuals who are latent but at higher risk of rapidly developing active tuberculosis (TB) is one of the intervention measures to control the spread of TB. This work proposes a TB SVELIT (S-Susceptible, V-Vaccinated, E-Early latent, L-Late latent, I-Infected, T-Treated) transmission model with relapse. In particular, a complete threshold dynamical analysis for the model is performed and the existence of optimal control is obtained. Meanwhile, the validity of the model is shown by comparing the real data with the fitted curve and the future trend in the incidence of TB in China is predicted. More importantly, the effects of four strategies, including vaccination, media propaganda, screening latent individuals, and receiving treatment, are evaluated numerically. The results suggest that the above four strategies can effectively control TB and shorten the duration of the epidemic. Interestingly, treatment is more effective than vaccination in controlling TB, but media propaganda and latent screening are cheaper and easier to implement.

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