题目：Fast anthropogenic environmental change can cause the collapse of fishery ecosystems

专家：原三领教授（上海理工大学）

时间：2025年10月24日15:30-16:30

地点：复杂系统研究所4层报告厅（商学楼409室）

专家介绍：原三领，上海理工大学教授，博士生导师，中国数学会生物数学专业委员会副主任。研究方向为：微分方程与动力系统、生物数学。先后主持多项国家自然科学基金和上海市基金项目的研究工作。研究内容涉及微分方程与动力系统、种群动力学、流行病动力学、海洋生态学以及生物化学工程等诸多领域，具有鲜明的多学科交叉特点。曾多次受邀到国内和国际多所高校进行合作研究和学术交流。已在Siam Journal in Applied Mathematics, Journal of Mathematical Biology, Journal of Differential Equations等国内外重要学术刊物上发表SCI论文150余篇。

报告摘要：Recreational fisheries, often recognized as fishing activities undertaken by individuals for sport and leisure, can be conceptualized as integrated systems where changes in human activities have significant implications for the interconnected components of the fishery ecosystems. These systems often exhibit nonlinear dynamics and are susceptible to abrupt and irreversible shifts in function and structure, referred to as critical transitions. Most existing studies on critical transitions in fishery ecosystems focus on the magnitude of changes in fishing practices. In this study, we examine a recreational fishery model that incorporates high prey and its predators, both of which are subject to fishing by anglers. Our analysis demonstrates that the fishery ecosystem is sensitive not only to the magnitude of changes in fishing pressure but also to the rate at which these changes are implemented. Surprisingly, for fixed fishing pressure of predators, a slow increase in fishing pressure of the prey, even when aiming at a relatively high fishing target, can sustain the prey fish stock at a sustainable biomass level, while a fast increase in fishing pressure can lead to the collapse of prey population. Additionally, we identify critical thresholds for the rate of increase in fishing pressure for different initial population sizes and accordingly assign warning levels to these values. Furthermore, to evaluate the risk of rate-induced tipping, no introduce two key notions of tipping time and rate-tipping probability. Interestingly, we find that as the rate of change of fishing pressure increases, the tipping probability first increases rapidly, then slowly, and finally saturates, while tipping time decreases gradually, that is, the increase of lambda models accelerates the collapse of prey population. The scenario when the fishing pressures of the prey and predators vary synchronously is also considered. Our study offers valuable insights for fisheries management decision-making, not only emphasizing the importance of considering the magnitude of management adjustments but also highlighting the temporal dynamics of implementing these changes to achieve desired outcomes.

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