报告题目：Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza

报告人：刘权辉副教授（四川大学）

报告时间：2019年8月18日（星期日）上午9:30

报告地点:复杂系统研究所报告厅

摘要:

School-closure policies are considered one of the most promising nonpharmaceutical interventions for mitigating seasonal and pandemic influenza. However, their effectiveness is still debated, primarily due to the lack of empirical evidence about the behavior of the population during the implementation of the policy. Over the course of the 2015 to 2016 influenza season in Russia, we performed a diary-based contact survey to estimate the patterns of social interactions before and during the implementation of reactive school-closure strategies. We develop an innovative hybrid survey-modeling framework to estimate the time-varying network of human social interactions. By integrating this network with an infection transmission model, we reduce the uncertainty surrounding the impact of school-closure policies in mitigating the spread of influenza. When the school-closure policy is in place, we measure a significant reduction in the number of contacts made by students (14.2 vs. 6.5 contacts per day) and workers (11.2 vs. 8.7 contacts per day). This reduction is not offset by the measured increase in the number of contacts between students and nonhousehold relatives. Model simulations suggest that gradual reactive school closure policies based on monitoring student absenteeism rates are capable of mitigating influenza spread.We estimate that without the implemented reactive strategies the attack rate of the 2015 to 2016 influenza season would have been 33% larger. Our study sheds light on the social mixing patterns of the population during the implementation of reactive school closures and provides key instruments for future cost-effectiveness analyses of school-closure policies.

报告人简介：刘权辉，2019年获电子科技大学博士学位，目前以副研究员身份入职四川大学。2016-2018年获得国家留基委资助，并在美国东北大学杰出教授、欧洲科学院院士、流行病传播领军人物 Alessandro Vespignani实验室博士联合培养两年。主要从事计算流行病学、网络科学与数据科学方面的研究工作。目前以第一作者且直投的方式在PNAS上发表两篇论文，在物理和交叉科学类顶级综述期刊Physics Reports 合作发表一篇论文，其影响因子为28.295，同时还在Physical Review E、Chaos等国际一流权威期刊发表多篇论文。