报告题目：Seasonal Transmission Dynamics of Measles in China
报告人：阮士贵 教授 （美国迈阿密大学）
摘要：Measles, a highly contagious infection caused by the measles virus, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported measles cases decreased dramatically from 2004 to 2012 due to the mandatory measles vaccine program started in 2005 and the goal of eliminating measles by 2012. However, after reaching its lowest level in 2012, measles has resurged again since 2013. Since the monthly data of measles cases exhibit a seasonally fluctuating pattern, based on the measles model in Earn et al. (Science 287(2000), 667-670) we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the seasonal measles epidemics and the effect of vaccination. We calculate the basic reproduction number R_0, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of measles cases reported in China. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of R_0 in the terms of various model parameters which shows that measles can be controlled and eventually eradicated by increasing the immunization rate, improving the effective vaccine management, and enhancing the awareness of people about measles. Age-structured measles models are also considered and optimal vaccination programs are discussed.
报告人简介：阮士贵，现为美国迈阿密大学数学系终身教授。研究领域为生物数学、动力系统以及微分方程。担任Mathematical Biosciences、DCDS-B等重要刊物编委。此外，作为组委会主席，曾在法国等地组织过多次重要国际会议。主要学术成就包括白血病的数学建模和分析、非典（SARS）、狂犬病、乙肝传播的建模与控制、人类免疫缺陷病毒I型（HIV—I）的感染动力学研究、媒介传播（Vector—borne）疾病的建模与理论分析、生态与传染病模型的多参数分支分析、浮游生物系统的动力学等。已经在PNAS，Trans AMS，Memoris AMS,JDE，JMB等重要刊物发表学术论文100余篇。