报告题目：Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: underlying mechanisms and future projection
报告人：张来教授 (扬州大学)
报告时间：2023年5月20号10:00-11:00
报告地点：复杂系统研究所报告厅(商学楼409室)
报告人简介：张来，扬州大学数学科学学院，教授，博士生导师。2012年2月博士毕业于丹麦科技大学(Technical University of Denmark)，2011 年 12 月到 2016 年8 月在瑞典于默奥大学(Umea university)做博士后，2016年9月获副教授岗位2017年6月获研究员终身岗，2017年9月加入扬州大学。在理论生态学国际权威期刊如Global Change Biology, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London，Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Evolution, Journal of Animal Ecology 以生物数学期刊如 Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Mathematical Biosciences, Theoretical Ecology, Physical Review E等共发表SCI 论文50余篇。2018年入选江苏省特聘教授人才计划以及荣获第二届江苏省工业与应用数学奖--青年奖，2018年并获江苏省自然科学基金面上项目和国家自然科学基金面上项目各一项。
报告摘要：Dengue fever is a climate-sensitive health concern caused by mosquito-borne virus. Since both weather and climate are very important factors for dengue transmission, it is vital to clarify how major climatic elements such as temperature and precipitation interact to affect the spread of dengue. In this study, utilizing capacity (VC)-based mathematical model, we investigated the mechanisms by which the daily mean temperature (DMT), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and daily mean precipitation (DMP) jointly influence the dengue spread. We further forecast future dengue patterns in mainland China under different climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)) by 2050 and 2080. Results show that these three climate factors trigger complex nonlinear effects on dengue transmission. Interactions between DMT and DTR plays a decisive role in determing the spreading fronts of dengue epidemics, while DMP considerably impacts its transmission intensity. Although future climate changes would facilitate northward expansion of areas at risk of dengue under SSP245 and SSP585, significant contraction would happen under SSP126.These findings illuminate the interacting mechanisms of temperature transmission and contribute to the development of a comprehensive and precipitation on dengue management.
张来教授在做精彩报告
